Designing Debt Restructuring: The Adverse Effects on Labor Market Outcomes
Best PhD Paper Award at CEPR Conference on Household Finance; Ola Bengtsson Award for the best Finance PhD paper
Abstract: This paper examines how the design of debt restructuring or personal insolvency programs shapes labor market outcomes using Sweden as a case study. In the Swedish debt restructuring program, debt is forgiven following a 5-year partial repayment period. I estimate the causal effects of the program using an examiner instrumental variable (IV) design and show that traditional examiner IV estimates can be biased if there is path dependency in examiner decision-making. This bias is avoided by estimating examiner leniency from past cases. On average, participation in the debt restructuring program has negative effects on labor income and employment, but these findings mask a large heterogeneity. Initially employed participants experience relative gains in income and employment, while initially unemployed participants face substantial negative effects. Both of these effects persist even after the program has ended. Combining observational data and results from a survey I conducted among debt restructuring participants, I show that the risk of substantial increases in repayment obligations disincentivizes unemployed participants from seeking employment. I then calibrate a labor supply model and show that modest changes in the repayment plan structure improve welfare for both debtors and creditors. These findings challenge the practice of substantially adjusting repayment plans in debt restructuring programs in response to income changes.
Abstract: We study the impact of mergers and acquisitions (M&As) on firm performance and worker labor market outcomes in Sweden. Comparing firms that undergo M&As with those that eventually do so, we find that both joint profits and employment drop substantially following a merger. However, this masks substantial heterogeneity: Profits of firms that share a common board member with the target firm continue to grow as expected, and only firms without a common board member experience reduced profit. This is especially true for vertical M&As between firms in different industries. This heterogeneity reflects differences in the effect of mergers on salaries, where firms that share a common board member with the target firm cut salaries following mergers, while others do not. We provide evidence that firms that execute successful M&As strategically send board members to potential targets in the years leading up to the M&A. This suggests that information acquisition can play a crucial role in successfully executing an M&A.
Employer Labor Market Power and Working Hours: Evidence from Swedish Layoffs (with Patrizia Massner)
Abstract: Many part-time workers report a preference for increasing their working hours at the current wage rate. This paper analyzes the role that firm labor market power plays in shaping this involuntary part-time employment in Sweden. We use a novel identification strategy based on part-time workers who experience an increase in local labor market concentration caused by a large layoff event at another firm within the same labor market. We compare these workers to unaffected colleagues in different occupations within the same plant. Our findings reveal that increased labor market concentration substantially reduces wages and working hours. At the same time their employers increase employment on the extensive margin. To explain these findings, we present evidence that, unlike full-time workers, part-time workers' productivity falls in weekly working hours. Thus, employers face incentives to increase production by expanding employment on the extensive margin, rather than by raising hours of part-time workers. These findings suggest that firm labor market power contributes to involuntary part-time employment.
Tertiary Education and Innovation (with David Seim and David Strömberg)
The Role of HR Professionals in Wage-Setting and Worker-Firm Matching
Educational Choices and Expected Discrimination